The Great Disaster

There's a type of life event I think of as The Great Disaster.

Like most things in life it's a spectrum of sorts: some disasters are greater than others. But roughly speaking, a Great Disaster is any kind of life event that haunts you and changes you for years afterwards.

The death of a partner or (God forbid) a child is a Great Disaster without question. So is a betrayal from a partner that leaves you untrusting for years ahead. A psychotic episode, or a sexual assault, or a miscarriage of justice can be a Great Disasters in many people's lives.

Many things that are sad or bad are not great disasters. E.g. breaking a leg, or going through a hard but mutual breakup, or losing an elderly relative. These might be tragedies of the human condition, but in some way I can't explain they don't (generally) qualify as disasters, I guess because they don't pose as fundamental a question to the premise of your life.

Apologies for anyone who doesn't like to think this way, but: I sometimes idly wonder about the probability that one will face a Great Disaster in any given year.

Here's a relevant intuition: if the probability for each person to face a Great Disaster is 5% per year, then in any 20 year stretch they'll have a 64% chance of having one; in 40 years it'll be 87% chance; and in 60 years it's 95%.

I made up 5%, I don't know if it's true, but based on these longer-term figures it feels ballpark accurate to me. It seems plausible to me that a small majority of people will face a great disaster between age 20-40, and that very few people will make it through a lifetime without one.

Of course, probabilities are just probabilities, and some people will face multiple Great Disasters within a few years. I sincerely pray these people will get compensated in some way in some life to come, because otherwise it just doesn't seem fair.

Some guy I read or heard once (but alas can't find a link to right now) says that one of the great dichotomies between people is whether or not they've already faced the great disaster of their life. Often I think you can see it in people's eyes, or maybe the lines around them.